Inflation outlook: CPI might dip to record-low in July; FY26 average may slip below RBI forecast

A State Bank of India report forecasts record-low retail inflation in India by July 2025, projecting FY26 CPI inflation between 3.0% and 3.2%, significantly below the RBI’s 3.7% forecast. This follows a recent 50 basis points rate cut, with the RBI now focusing on capital formation.